Globalization in Retreat
For decades, globalization carried the promise of knitting the world together into an interconnected whole. Goods, services, people, and ideas flowed across borders more freely than ever before, with technology amplifying every link in the chain. Many imagined a future where national boundaries became more administrative than existential – where individuals could live, work, and travel nearly anywhere without barriers. Yet in the 2020s, that vision feels fragile. The tide has turned toward nationalism, protectionism, and political campaigns that frame outsiders as threats. The result is a global order that looks less like a shared village and more like a fragmented archipelago, each island building higher walls.
History: The High Tide of Globalization
The late 20th century marked the steepest acceleration of globalization in human history. Following the end of the Cold War, Western leaders championed free trade as the path to peace and prosperity. The creation of the World Trade Organization in 1995 cemented the rules of liberalized global commerce (WTO). Regional trade agreements such as NAFTA (1994) and the expansion of the European Union deepened economic integration. Air travel became accessible to wider populations, while container shipping and just-in-time supply chains reshaped industries. World Bank
Technology reinforced this momentum. The rapid adoption of the internet and mobile networks made communication instantaneous, while platforms like eBay and Amazon introduced the idea of a global marketplace. Popular works such as Thomas Friedman’s The World is Flat (2005) captured the optimism of a world where geography seemed to matter less. By the early 2000s, global trade as a share of GDP had doubled compared to 1970 (IMF), and hundreds of millions of people, particularly in China and India, had been lifted out of poverty (World Bank).
This “golden era” of globalization was far from perfect – critics noted its uneven benefits and environmental costs – but the general trajectory seemed clear: deeper integration, fewer barriers, and a steady erosion of borders as defining lines in daily life.
Now: The Backlash and Retreat
The 2010s and 2020s have revealed the cracks in the globalization narrative. Far from fading, nationalism and protectionism have resurged.
Economic inequality: While globalization lifted many, it also left segments behind. In wealthy countries, wages for working- and middle-class citizens stagnated even as corporate profits soared. Studies show that globalization contributed to job losses in U.S. manufacturing, particularly after China’s WTO accession in 2001 (Autor, Dorn & Hanson, 2016). Resentment over “offshoring” fueled populist movements.
Political movements: Brexit in 2016 was a clear rejection of deep integration, framed as reclaiming sovereignty. In the U.S., Donald Trump’s presidency prioritized tariffs, stricter immigration policies, and a “Buy American” agenda. Similar currents are evident in India’s digital sovereignty push and China’s expansion of its “Great Firewall.”
The pandemic: COVID-19 accelerated this retreat. Borders slammed shut, supply chains faltered, and vaccine nationalism highlighted the limits of cooperation. Global air travel fell by more than 60% in 2020 (ICAO), and governments prioritized domestic needs over cross-border solidarity.
Weaponization of identity: Politicians have increasingly used fear of the “other” to consolidate power. Anti-immigrant rhetoric and hostility toward outsiders became political mainstays, often amplified by misinformation campaigns. We have always been at war with Eastasia. - 1984
What globalization once promised – freer movement of people, goods, and ideas – now collides with rising walls. Instead of a “global citizen,” identity is increasingly tethered to nationalism, often framed in exclusionary terms.
The Future: Fragmentation or Renewal?
Looking ahead, globalization will not vanish, but it is likely to evolve into more fragmented and uneven forms.
Fragmented Globalization: Economists already speak of “slowbalization” – the deceleration of cross-border integration since the 2008 financial crisis (The Economist). Supply chains are shifting from truly global networks to “friendshoring” and regional blocs. For example, the U.S. is deepening trade with allies while decoupling from China in strategic sectors like semiconductors.
Layered Openness: Some flows will remain global – digital entertainment, software, cryptocurrencies – but others, like migration, will remain tightly controlled. Citizens may find themselves living in a world where they can stream content from anywhere but not easily move or work abroad.
Global Challenges as a Forcing Function: Climate change, pandemics, and AI governance are inherently global problems. They may pressure governments into renewed cooperation. International frameworks like the Paris Agreement show imperfect but real possibilities of cross-border collaboration. Whether these can withstand nationalist politics is uncertain.
Technology’s Double Edge: While technology can bridge gaps – remote work, AI translation, fintech – it can also be used to enforce boundaries, as in China’s model of digital authoritarianism. The future of globalization may depend on whether technology is deployed as a tool of openness or of control.
Conclusion
The trajectory of globalization is no longer linear. After decades of deepening integration, the pendulum has swung toward fragmentation. Nations are reasserting their boundaries, both physical and digital, in ways that challenge the earlier dream of a borderless world. Yet globalization is not “over”; it is morphing into new shapes, less universal, more uneven, and often more contested.
History suggests that integration and fragmentation come in cycles. The same forces that drive retreat – fear, inequality, nationalism – may eventually provoke their own counter-reaction, as societies rediscover the benefits of openness. The 21st century may not deliver Friedman’s flat world, but it is unlikely to settle permanently into hardened borders either. Instead, we face a world of shifting seams, stitched and restitched by politics, economics, and culture.
A Personal Note
I had once hoped for a world where borders were less about identity and more about governance management. A world where anyone could live, work, and vacation anywhere, and where technology helped equalize pay scales and opportunities. That kind of future feels far away now, eroded by nationalism and political opportunism. Yet I hold onto the possibility that the pendulum will swing back. Technology has not lost its potential to connect us; it has only been caught in the crosscurrents of politics and fear. The question is whether we will use it to build walls or bridges – and whether we can imagine, once again, a world where belonging is not defined by a passport stamp.